Phil Rodgers: How climate change influences Cambridge politics - and the path to net zero

Climate change is one of the most important issues for many Cambridge voters, and also one of the most difficult for politicians to grapple with.

It is both urgent but also long-term, and has consequences for a huge range of policy areas. Here’s a look at how the real climate influences the political climate in our city.

The graph above comes from a recent city council report on climate change strategy, and shows how the city’s carbon emissions have changed since 2005.

Looking at it, you might be forgiven for thinking that Cambridge is doing a pretty good job of tackling the climate crisis - all the main categories of emissions are down significantly. However, lurking in the data are some difficult problems.

For example, a lot of the drop in emissions is because less coal is being used for electricity generation. But the amount of coal being used isn’t going to fall any further - it reached zero at the end of last month with the closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. And even if you assume that Cambridge’s carbon emissions will keep going down at the same rate, it will take another 20 years for them to get anywhere near zero, which isn’t going to help the city council’s vision of net zero by 2030.

The Labour-run city council declared a climate emergency in February 2019, followed in May 2019 by the county council, which was Conservative-controlled at the time.

Both councils have well-developed climate policies, and both are relatively highly rated by the council climate action scorecards compiled by Climate Emergency UK.

Indeed, Cambridge City Council is the second-highest of 164 district councils, with its 57 per cent score being around twice the average. Cambridgeshire County Council, with 44 per cent, is fifth-highest of 21 county councils.

While the city council has certainly made progress in reducing its own emissions, as the graph shows, these represent less than 1 per cent of the emissions for the whole city.

The city council’s current climate change strategy calls for “Cambridge to be net zero carbon by 2030”, but, crucially, “subject to government, industry and regulators implementing the necessary changes”. This recognises the reality that a lot of the policy decisions affecting Cambridge’s carbon emissions aren’t made in Cambridge.

In practice, I don’t think anyone seriously believes that the city is likely to reach net zero by 2030. Among other things, this would involve every gas boiler and internal combustion engine in Cambridge being either replaced or having its emissions offset.

The city council is due to renew its climate change strategy in 2026, which should make for an interesting policy debate. Things were easier for Labour locally when they had a Conservative government nationally to blame things on.

While there is some unease in Cambridge Labour about the start that the new government has made on issues such as the winter fuel allowance, one area which has seen some swift decisions is energy policy.

The newly-minted Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, Ed Miliband, has scrapped the effective ban on new on-shore wind farms, and approved plans for the vast and sprawling Sunnica solar farm near Newmarket - a scheme opposed by, among others, Carbon Neutral Cambridge.

However, the government seems to face a delicate balancing act, judging by a recent article in the Sun newspaper by Keir Starmer, headlined: “I will not sacrifice Great British industry to the drum-banging, finger-wagging net zero extremists.”

With the international outlook uncertain, it may be challenging for Labour to persuade voters to support policies that increase their already very high energy prices.

Locally, both the Lib Dems and Greens are likely to campaign against the government for being too timid on the environment. This could give Cambridge Labour some awkward moments, if they find themselves having to defend national policies which are more pragmatic and less visionary than many Cambridge voters might like.

Labour will certainly challenge the Lib Dems on their record in the coalition, though this attack gets less effective with every year that passes. The Greens, too, have some policy difficulties, such as their opposition to plans for new electricity pylons, and some bitter splits within the party on HS2.

The Conservatives have, to put it politely, been rather inconsistent in tone on environmental issues. David Cameron went from hugging huskies in the Arctic on a visit to see the effects of climate change, to a reported policy of “cut the green crap” midway through the coalition.

Boris Johnson certainly became less of a climate sceptic during his career, but still attracted a good deal of criticism on the issue.

Both the current Conservative leadership candidates, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, are seen as being on the right of the party and have sounded sceptical notes about net zero policy. Locally, I think it’s safe to say that Cambridge Conservative campaigning has not always focused on environmental issues.

Climate change is also an issue which has seen a lot of campaigning activity outside of electoral politics, and often outside of the law.

Cambridge has seen a fair amount of this, peaking just before the pandemic in 2020, when Extinction Rebellion (XR) activists blockaded the junction of Trumpington Road and the Fen Causeway for a week, and occupied the city council chamber at the Guildhall.

However, these tactics don’t seem to have produced any very substantial shifts in government policy, either nationally or locally.

In 2018, XR declared its objectives were to reach net zero by 2025, and establish a citizen’s assembly to guide environmental policy in place of elected politicians. Neither of these are anywhere near being achieved - the UK government target date for net zero remains at 2050, and electoral politics shows no signs of going away any time soon.

Indeed the main policy response has been to introduce long prison sentences for illegal activism, a change which the new government has so far shown no signs of reversing. XR moved away from disruptive tactics in 2023, but other groups such as Just Stop Oil have continued with them.

Ultimately, issues matter to governments if they matter to voters. Polling indicates that while climate change is still among the top 10 concerns of the electorate, it has slipped down the list since 2021, when the COP26 summit helped make it one of the most important issues of the day.

Currently, the economy, immigration and health occupy the top three spots, nationally at least. However, I think it’s pretty clear that it remains a key issue with the Cambridge electorate, and voters are likely to have some tough questions for the city’s politicians as the climate crisis continues.