Phil Rodgers: ‘Political consequences of GCP’s congestion charge decision will last years’

Cambridge politics is not often dull, but if it has a quiet season, it usually comes in the summer. The local election campaign is over, the city’s new mayor has donned her robes, and local councillors and activists - while still of course working hard for residents all year round - start to think about squeezing in a little holiday time, or simply relaxing and enjoying the delights of Cambridge in the summertime.

This year, things are rather different. After deposing city council leader Anna Smith, Cambridge Labour now find themselves fighting a by-election in King’s Hedges, following Alex Collis’s resignation. Meanwhile, at the Greater Cambridge Partnership, the long-awaited results of the Sustainable Travel Zone consultation have been published, confirming that the balance of opinion in both the city and the county is against congestion charging, and we await the crucial GCP meeting on June 29 which will decide what to do next.

You do have to feel a bit sorry for the voters of King’s Hedges, who will be going back to the polls on July 4, just two months after the local elections. They will be experiencing a particularly intense by-election campaign, judging by the social media photos of large groups of activists out knocking on doors. Here’s how King’s Hedges ward voted in recent years:

As you can see, this year’s May election brought a dramatic change from the usual pattern of large Labour majorities, with Conservative candidate Delowar Hossain narrowing the margin from 31 per cent to just seven per cent. His campaign focused on opposition to the proposed congestion charge, and he is continuing this theme in the by-election.

The other parties all have new candidates. Defending the seat for Labour is Zarina Anwar, a forensic scientist who was runner-up in Abbey ward in May. The Lib Dems are represented by Jamie Dalzell, previously a councillor for West Chesterton, and the Green candidate is Elizabeth May, a retired lecturer who has stood several times in East Chesterton. The Conservatives will be hoping to make an electoral breakthrough, but on the other hand Labour’s formidable campaign organisation will be giving the ward a lot more attention than it did in May. Voters will have a chance to hear the candidates debate the issues at a hustings event on June 28 at 7:30pm at the function room of the Golden Hind on Milton Road.

While party activists are pounding the streets of King’s Hedges, the GCP’s STZ plans are moving closer to the point where difficult choices have to be made. The results of the consultation showed that opinion in the city and the county is not yet convinced of the merits of the congestion charge. There was broad support for bus improvements, but when people were asked about the introduction of the STZ to fund them, the consultation found 58% against the plans with just 34 per cent in favour.

As well as the consultation, which drew around 24,000 responses, the GCP also conducted a “demographically representative poll” of 1,000 people, aiming to reflect the opinions of all sections of the population, including those who were less motivated to respond to the consultation.

While the overall result of this poll was much closer, with 36 per cent against and 35 per cent in favour of the STZ, the geographic breakdown showed that much of the support came from outside Cambridgeshire. Within Cambridge itself, the poll result was an emphatic 63 per cent against with 33 per cent in favour, while in Cambridgeshire it was 56 per cent against with 38 per cent in favour. Only those outside the county were in favour of the STZ overall, by 55 per cent to 37 per cent.

Earlier this month, the GCP assembly held a lengthy meeting to mull over the consultation results and offer suggestions on how the plans might be modified.

The main changes they supported were more help for people on low incomes, and the idea of “free days” or “free time” which would give residents periods of exemption from the congestion charge. Opinions were more mixed on exemptions for hospital patients and visitors, and for unpaid carers and charity volunteers.

Assembly members also discussed the issue of people living within the zone being charged when driving out to work, but didn’t have any very practical solutions for this. They were generally opposed to reducing the hours of operation or the boundaries of the zone.

The assembly’s input will be considered as the GCP board discusses options – including a peak-only charge, ‘free’ days or a ‘minimalist’ option combining both – on June 29, and any STZ plans they approve must then be agreed by the county council. Nobody is expecting the board to support the existing plans unchanged, but how are events likely to play out? I think there are broadly four possible scenarios, though some are a good deal more likely than others.

Firstly, it’s possible that the GCP board will decide to abandon the idea of congestion charging altogether. I don’t think this is very likely, but we shouldn’t discount the possibility altogether - after all, it is what happened to all previous attempts to introduce a Cambridge congestion charge. The board may simply decide that the political difficulties are too great.

Secondly, the board may support a modified STZ which is then rejected by the county council. I don’t think this is very likely either, but it could happen. Between them, the Lib Dems and Labour control both the GCP board and, with independents, the county council. They are probably not going to put forward proposals that they think their county councillors won’t vote through, but there is always the chance of an unexpected rebellion.

Thirdly, the GCP board and the county council may both support a modified STZ, but find that the balance of public opinion is still against it. I think this is probably the most likely outcome. In this scenario the big question is how severe the electoral consequences would be. The 2025 local elections for the county council and mayor of the Combined Authority would be critical - while STZ implementation would be well underway by then, anti-STZ candidates would undoubtedly campaign on a “last chance to stop congestion charging” platform.

Finally, there’s the possibility that new STZ plans win over public opinion. While some opponents of the STZ will never support congestion charging, there is some evidence from the consultation that changes to the plans might win over others - though the changes most frequently mentioned, like reduced charges or boundaries, seem not to be favoured by assembly members or GCP officers. Overall I think this remains a tall order for the GCP.

Whatever the GCP board decides on June 29, the political consequences will last for many years beyond the King’s Hedges by-election.

Phil Rodgers has lived in Cambridge since 1984. Married with two daughters, he works as a developer for a city software firm. You can read more from him on his blog, and look out for his column each month in the Cambridge Independent.