Cambridge analysts call out challenges after Trump wins US presidential election

Donald Trump’s election to a historic second term as US president presents challenges that could be both divisive and catastrophic, according to three faculty members of Cambridge Judge Business School.

But first, how did such a large margin of electoral college votes - 224 for Kamala Harris, 277 for Trump - happen, when polls were almost uniformly predicting a neck-and-neck race, or a narrow lead for Harris?

The reason, says Thomas Roulet, professor of organisational sociology and leadership at Cambridge Judge Business School (CJBS), is that people don’t share their true voting intentions - and that may be exaggerated when those intentions involve voting for a convicted criminal with a long history of racism and misogyny.

“In 2016, before the election, I wrote that Trump supporters were underestimated by polls mobilising the ‘spiral of silence’ theory,” said Prof Roulet, “which suggests that people may withhold their true opinions when they feel these views contradict prevailing societal norms or could lead to social ostracism. The same may have occurred in 2024 in terms of a hidden but substantial backing for Trump that resulted in a victory margin that is surprising to many.

“In my book ‘The Power of Being Divisive’ I explore how political leaders often take controversial stances to forge strong group identities and build polarised, loyal voter bases. By presenting themselves as truth-tellers who ‘say it as it is’, these leaders attract supporters who feel aligned with their distinctive approach.

“As before, I fear that some aspects of Trump’s strategy will be copied – but improved – by future populists who can balance divisive positioning that attract a hardcore base with broader stances that attract a wider spectrum of support.”

Michael Kitson, associate professor in international economics at CJBS, kept his remarks brief.

"The democratic process in the United States has chosen Donald Trump as its 47th President,” said Prof Kitson. “The American electorate has made its choice. But this decision will herald a world economy leaning toward greater protectionism – which will lead to lower incomes and higher prices in many countries including the UK.”

The US election result was comprehensive - the Senate is now Republican, with Congress still undecided. The disastrous presidency of Joe Biden - which initially held such promise - will be over when the new president is sworn in on 20 January 2025. Among the many concerns at how far Trump will allow his personal views free reign in his second spell as US president. As well as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Trump’s views on climate change are well known and can be summarised in the classic denialist retort of “fake news”.

David Reiner, professor of technology policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, said: “The election of Donald Trump is undoubtedly a major setback for global climate action and the only question is just how catastrophic the impact will be.

“In terms of international politics, Trump has already withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement once back in 2017 and so this seems almost guaranteed to happen early in his administration. US withdrawal will give permission for other countries to take their foot off the accelerator even if they might continue to claim to be rhetorically committed to climate action (last time, no other countries officially withdrew). So, like on trade, defence cooperation, etc the international system will find itself challenged even more than during his previous administration.

“But most of what drives energy consumption and CO2 emissions is independent of who is president — US emissions have fallen since 2007 driven not by US climate policy, which has been largely non-existent at the federal level, but by events such as the global financial crisis or Covid-19 lockdowns or, most notably, the massive growth of indigenous shale gas and shale oil production as well as massive cost reductions in the costs of renewables that has made coal-fired electricity uneconomic regardless of how much Trump might claim to prefer coal.

“The other big question is over the fate of the Biden Administration's one major achievement on climate policy, namely, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which provides almost $800bn in various forms of support for clean technology. Much of that support went to Republican districts and so even though a Trump Administration might not favour these technologies in principle, in practice, the pork barrel nature of how they have been distributed might make them more resilient to efforts to remove them.”

Meanwhile, Cambridge for Europe sees the election as an opportunity.

“The election of Donald Trump as US president is Europe's final wake-up call. It's time to stop outsourcing our security to the US,” said Paul Browne, chair of Cambridge for Europe.

“The UK government must now work with European allies to ensure democratic Ukraine will still get the military and financial support it needs to defeat the brutal aggression of Putin's Russian dictatorship, even if Trump ends US support.

“The democracies of Europe, including EU members and the UK, certainly have the resources to do this, now they must find the will to cooperate and invest much more in their collective defence and security.

“We must be willing to defend our shared values, nobody else will do it for us, and the defence of those values starts in Ukraine.”