Will East West Rail really deliver a £6.7bn annual economic boost?
The economic benefits of East West Rail are coming under scrutiny as consultation on the new line continues.
More than 500 people attended a drop-in event in Great Shelford as East West Railway Company (EWR Co) took its revised plans out to gauge public feedback.
The updated plans for the Oxford to Cambridge line, unveiled this month, include a new ‘cut and cover’ tunnel beneath the A428, Bourn Airfield development and Highfields Road, with a temporary diversion of the A428 and other local roads, plus a tunnel through Chapel Hill, near Haslingfield, to reduce the visual and environmental impact of the line.
New stations at Tempsford in Bedfordshire and at Cambourne, to the north of the A428, will be built for the line, which will take a southerly route into the under-construction Cambridge South station on Cambridge Biomedical Campus.
When unveiling the revised proposals, the government forecast that the line will boost the economy by £6.7billion per year by 2050.
But that figure has been challenged this week in an open letter from Cambridge Approaches, a grassroots group opposed to the line, to transport secretary Louise Haigh.
The letter argues that there is “no evidence supplied to support the claim” and asks her to explain the figures.
Letter writer Dr William Harrold notes that the only economic evidence supplied to date came in a 2023 Economic and Technical Report (ETR), which explored the number of commuters who may use the line and number of houses that may be built alongside it.
It noted that Cambridge’s economy could grow by £4bn-£5bn by 2050, with 80,000 new jobs expected, including 28,200 attributed to East West Rail.
But Dr Harrold writes: “The £4bn-5bn is a figure for the total growth of Cambridge not just East West Rail (EWR) and it is therefore misleading to associate it with EWR.”
And he continues: “The number of EWR Cambridge rail commuters according to the evidenced model (based on the 2011 Census) was only 2,090 per day.
“However, the estimate included in the 28,200 jobs figure was based on unevidenced model parameters merely described as ‘very aspirational’.
“The number of EWR Cambridge rail commuters was thereby boosted by a factor of four to 7,980 per day. The non rail commuters are also boosted for the same reason. Why is this a sensible or safe assumption?”
In justifying the economic case for the line, the 2023 report suggested East West Rail could unlock huge housing developments around the new stations at Cambourne and Tempsford. The report suggested housing for 53,400 people could be built around Cambourne alone, which would increase its size by 6.8 times.”
But nothing like this level of housebuilding is envisaged in current Local Plans.
Given that local authorities are not working on such plans, Dr Harrold asks: “Who is going to sign-off these houses, when and why?”
He told the Cambridge Independent: “If you build it today without any extra houses, you get about 500 commuters into Cambridge. In order to get it up to anything like the Borders railway or the Elizabeth Line in terms of cost per commuter, you have to build a colossal number of houses, and yet no one is responsible for that.
“If you ask East West Rail, they say: ‘We just do transport’. If you ask the local authorities, they say: ‘It’s not our project’.”
The new Cambridge Growth Company, created by the government, could yet have an influence on these plans, of course.
But Dr Harrold argues in his letter that even if many more homes are built, only a minority of new residents would use the new railway line, meaning roads would become increasingly congested.
He writes: “The evidenced model predicts a very small proportion of the working age population of the expanded Cambourne and Tempsford towns as being Cambridge rail commuters – 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively. But these settlements are included in the EWR-dependent housing.
“This is important because the 20,000 projected non-rail (ie road) commuters from these settlements are then counted in the 28,200 jobs figure.
“How can that be justified? These settlements could be developed, or not, and EWR would only make a marginal difference to their transport system. This is not EWR-dependent housing.
“The ETR analysis predicts that 20,000 of the 28,200 Cambridge commuters would not use EWR. This is of interest because one of the ways that EWR is supposed to stimulate growth in Cambridge is by unblocking our congested roads. In fact, the ETR analysis predicts that the roads would get much busier.
“We have confirmed with the Cambridge and Peterborough Combined Authority that they currently have no plans to handle this excess road traffic with additional public transport schemes, but that is what EWR say they assume would happen.
“If other public transport schemes are able to remove this congestion, why not do those instead of EWR? Consider for example a local light rail scheme.”
And he points to plans for other transport schemes.
“By the time EWR would be in operation, the local transport network will have changed. There will be a dualled A428/A421 and an off-road guided busway from Cambourne to Cambridge.
“Furthermore, some of the traffic congestion south of Cambridge will have been alleviated by the completion of the Cambridge South station. These changes would affect the passenger numbers in EWR. Why have they not been included in the ETR analysis?”
The cost of East West Rail was put at between £5.7bn and £6.6bn in a 2023 report, but that predated the plans for tunnels.
An East West Rail spokesperson said: “In our route update report in May 2023, we published a series of projections based on the overall economic potential in Cambridge alone.
“Our latest projections are more refined so the annual £6.7bn figure for economic growth covers not only the Cambridge area, but the complete line of route, and also isolates the benefits that are directly attributable to the railway.
“This demonstrates how strong the strategic case is to invest in EWR, and explains why the government committed to delivering the scheme at last month’s budget.
“EWR will create and deliver high-quality jobs, unlocking the region’s business, scientific and technical potential, as well as supporting sustainable new communities, which will bring benefits to Cambridgeshire, the region and the UK as a whole.”
The Cambridge Independent understands that EWR Co has based its high-level analysis of the economic impact of the line by examining the route’s role in supporting job growth by enabling the development of additional housing near its stations – housing that would likely not be built without the project.
The number of additional jobs facilitated by the additional labour pool from these housing developments has then been used to calculate the projected annual uplift in GVA (gross value added).
EWR Co says its estimate only considers employment growth linked to jobs that housing development supported by East West Rail could facilitate and does not account for broader employment growth in the region.
The economic case uses an approach known as Transport Appraisal Guidance (TAG), which considers benefits to passengers along with wider economic impacts, including the opportunity to facilitate housing growth.
However, a cost per Cambridge commuter has not been calculated by EWR Co.
The government has said that “the new line will bolster the area’s thriving life science cluster, enable new housing developments along the route and support up to 28,000 jobs in Cambridge alone”.
While some residents who will face disruption from the construction and operation of East West Rail have expressed concern over the plans, others are welcoming improved public transport to the Biomedical Campus, with its hospitals, research facilities and workplaces.
Charlotte Horobin, chief executive officer of Cambridgeshire Chambers of Commerce, told the Cambridge Independent: “We held a roundtable with David Hughes, CEO, EWR Co, in October. Members are positive about the opportunity to connect such a strategic economic corridor – but of course there is acknowledgement of the need to consider various views and we’re encouraging engagement in the consultation.
“There is a recognition of the ability to move talent and to drive innovation, unlocking future growth for UK plc.”
Consultation on the revised plans is continuing until 24 January, with a series of in-person drop-in events plus webinars.
Under the updated plans, EWR Co has confirmed that two new railway tracks will be laid beside the West Anglia Main Line from Shepreth Junction to Cambridge’s main station, where a new platform, platform extensions, footbridges and building upgrades are envisaged to accommodate four new passenger trains per hour.
A turnback facility at Cherry Hinton is now proposed to reduce the impact on Cambridge’s main railway station and avoid disruptive works there. This would mean passengers would alight at Cambridge station and trains continue east to Cherry Hinton to turn around, rather than at Cambridge.
EWR Co has also confirmed that green traction power, in the form of discontinuous electrification, will be used. This means hybrid battery-electric trains will be used, avoiding the need for overhead lines across the entire route.
The Department for Transport was contacted for comment.
In the Cambridge region, remaining consultation events include:
- 2-7pm, Tuesday, 3 December, 2024 - Cambridge Belfry, Back Lane, Great Cambourne CB23 6BW
- 2-7pm, Friday, 10 January, 2025 - Comberton Village Hall, Green End, Comberton CB23 7DY
- 12-5pm, Saturday, 18 January, 2025 - The Clayton Hotel, 27-29 Station Road, Cambridge, CB1 2FB
- 2-7pm, Tuesday, 21 January, 2025 - St Andrew’s Church, Coldhams Lane, Cherry Hinton Cambridge, CB1 3JS
Online webinars will be held from
- 6-8pm, Tuesday, 10 December, 2024 - https://shorturl.at/436Ib
- 10am-12pm, Thursday, 9 January, 2025 - https://shorturl.at/Q0Ezd
Email contact@eastwestrail.co.uk to reach EWR Co’s helpdesk.
Visit eastwestrail.co.uk/consultation2024 for more details.
