Will public get on board with Cambridgeshire mayor’s bus franchising hopes?
Emerging plans to bring the bus network back under public control with a multi-million pound franchising scheme have been revealed to the public.
The plans, if approved, will mean almost all local services operating wholly in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough brought under the control of the Combined Authority. But doing so will come at a cost.
The Combined Authority estimates that a move to franchising would require an initial, one-off investment of £1.42million over the three-four year transition period. A further £1.5m per year for staffing and IT would also be needed.
Funding of the bus network will come from a combination of existing transport funding, money from reserves, loans and grants, but will also mean phased rises in the mayoral precept on the council tax bill of around two per cent per annum, based on anticipated housing growth.
The precept is forecast to need to average around £72 per household in total (currently £36 for a Band D household) across the 30-year appraisal period.
“The model of franchising envisaged is different from that found in London or the one recently introduced in Greater Manchester. Rather than controlling and managing all aspects and assuming all risks, the CA will look to share responsibilities and risks with operators, working collaboratively to define and design provision and incentivising operators to increase usage and benefit from increasing revenue,” explained a report pub lished with the Combined Authority’s consultation on the plans, which launched last Wednesday (14 August).
The proposals follow an independent report commissioned by the Combined Authority comparing a franchising solution and an enhanced partnership. The latter would offer benefits over the current bus service, the report found, but would give the Combined Authority less control over the routes, frequency and overall delivery of the services.
The authority concluded that a franchise scheme is the best way to improve bus services, but it is seeking the public’s views before moving forward.
“Buses play a vital role in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, getting people to places, connecting our communities, and supporting our economy. But evidence suggests that passengers face many challenges, resulting in fewer people choosing to travel by bus and a desire for improvements. The way that buses run now, where private companies decide where and how often to run buses, gives the Combined Authority limited ability to change things,” the consultation states.
Buses are the most used form of public transport in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, with more than 24 million bus journeys taken in 2022/23. However, passenger journeys have been in long-term decline and the bus industry faces many challenges.
Bus trips fell from 33.7 million in 2009-10 to 30.3 million in 2018-19 – and were then further impacted by the pandemic. Alongside declining use, the bus network is also getting smaller, with the number of miles operated falling over time.
The Combined Authority is also contributing more to the running of bus services. In 2019-20, it spent £12.3m on public transport. This rose to £15.6m in 2023-24.
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough’s Labour mayor Dr Nik Johnson has long argued the case for franchising of bus services in the county.
He points out that traffic congestion is the most frequent form of disruption to the region’s transport network, posing a risk to future growth.
The average speed on all major roads entering Cambridge during the ‘rush hour’ is less than 60 per cent of the ‘free flow’ speed, with commuters by car into the city spending a quarter of their journey time on average stuck in traffic. This means, on average, 20 per cent of bus services run late, in large part due to congestion.
Future growth, in the absence of transport investment, is expected to result in worsening traffic congestion. With the number of car journeys across the Combined Authority area forecast to increase by 40 per cent by 2031.
Under the proposed franchised model, the Combined Authority would share responsibilities and crucially, risks, by working together to “define and design provision” and “incentivising operators to increase usage and benefit from increasing revenue”.
About 88 per cent of bus mileage is operated on a commercial basis by operators, where they have control over their routes, timetables, ticket options, fares, frequency and service standards.
Bus operators receive the revenue from passenger fares, retain the profits and have the commercial independence to decide how to reinvest this to support the ongoing running of buses.
“The CA envisages having a bus network that is provided by several bus operators. It considers there should be opportunities for operators of all sizes, including small and medium companies. The intention is to encourage competition for contracts by maintaining a vibrant marketplace with contract opportunities set in a staggered programme of introduction and end.
“The CA will ensure that opportunities remain for existing operators in the area, as well as encouraging operators from outside.
“To open the market to more competition, help new entrants to the market and encourage small and medium-sized operators to bid, services will be included in a number of geographically-based packages, with requirements ranging from one to about 60 buses,” the report states. “Larger packages of services will be based in the Cambridge and Peterborough areas, plus the Cambridge busway.”
The Combined Authority will also specify the maximum ages of buses for each service at particular milestone dates under the preferred option – as well as allowing operators to retain control and ownership of their own vehicle fleets.
All local bus services operating wholly within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough would be governed by the franchising scheme, with a few exceptions.
These include schools or works registered local bus service, tourist sightseeing tours and services that are fully funded and arranged by a third party, such as the Universal service operated under contract to University of Cambridge.
The franchising arrangements would be phased in over a two-year period, providing two separate opportunities for operators to tender. The first procurement exercise will cover the Greater Cambridge travel to work area and the second for north Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
The authority would also like to see “significant progress” towards a zero-emission fleet and it is “likely that the provision of such vehicles will be included in the contract specifications”.
“Initially it is intended that the CA will retain all revenue, whilst also providing incentives to increase patronage. The CA will set all fares and define the ticketing products to be available. The intention is that fares will be simple and there will be a minimal number of different ticketing products. Tickets will be available for use across the network, regardless of operator,” the report states.
Since 1986, bus services in England – but not London – have been deregulated, meaning they are mainly run by private bus companies that have control over their routes, timetables, ticket options, fares and bus frequency.
However, the Bus Services Act gave city regions the power to introduce bus franchising in 2017.
Under a franchising model, private operators will still be contracted to run bus services but the Combined Authority will have greater control over fares, routes and timetables and the ability to reinvest any profit back into the network to improve services for passengers.
The debate over franchising has been running for years, but has fuelled more recently by the cancellation of non-profitable routes around the county by bus operators, many of which have been picked up, subsidised and retendered by the Combined Authority at significant cost. In April, for example, the Combined Authority allocated £174,000 to subsidise a second No 9 bus route between Littleport and Cambridge so that it could be operated by A2B, following changes by the previous operator, Stagecoach East. The authority hoped to recoup some of that cost from fares.
In the same month, the mayoral precept was trebled – from £12 to £36 for Band D taxpayers – to help it fund routes and introduce Tiger Passes, giving under-25s £1 fares.
The Greater Cambridge Partnership had planned to raise £50m for public transport improvements under its now-scrapped congestion charge plans.
Consultants considered both franchising and enhanced partnerships against three levels of investment: low, medium and high. Both the low option and the high option were dismissed over the ability to achieve the reforms needed and affordability, respectively.
The Combined Authority will publish a report setting out its response to the consultation and the mayor’s decision on whether to press ahead with the proposed franchising scheme. The proposed decision date is currently Wednesday, 22 January 2025, but is subject to change.
