YouGov poll suggests Labour will win in Cambridge and Tories will scrape home in South Cambridgeshire
Labour will hold on to Cambridge and the Conservatives will narrowly win in South Cambridgeshire, the latest YouGov poll suggests.
Meanwhile, South East Cambridgeshire will also remain a Tory seat, the poll predicts.
It projects, based on current voting intentions, that the Conservatives will win a 68-seat majority at the General Election on December 12.
Anthony Browne is predicted to win in South Cambridgeshire for the Tories with 42 per cent of the vote, narrowly beating Liberal Democrat Ian Sollom, who is projected to secure 40 per cent. Labour’s Dan Greef is forecast to secure 17 per cent.
The constituency has been a traditionally safe Tory seat. Heidi Allen was elected there in 2015 and 2017, but switched to the Liberal Democrats in October, following spells as an independent and with Change UK. Ms Allen is not standing at this election after receiving threats and abuse.
There was better news from the YouGov poll for Labour in Cambridge.
Daniel Zeichner is projected to be returned to his seat with 49 per cent of the vote, with Liberal Democrat challenger Rod Cantrill forecast to win 28 per cent.
Conservative Russell Perrin is expected to secure 14 per cent, while the Green party’s Jeremy Caddick is forecast to get five per cent of the vote. YouGov’s data suggests the Brexit Party will secure three per cent and other candidates will pick up one per cent between them.
With a couple of weeks left of campaigning, however, the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to defy these predictions and achieve what their own, early polling suggested - that they could win in both South Cambridgeshire and Cambridge.
The poll, in effect, is forecasting what would happen if the election took place now - and there is plenty of time for people to change their minds yet.
In South East Cambridgeshire, Tory Lucy Frazer is projected to return to Westminster with 49 per cent of the vote by YouGov, while it is estimate that Liberal Democrat Pippa Heylings will get 31 per cent and Labour’s James Bull will secure 18 per cent.
YouGov’s huge MRP poll is based on more than 100,000 interviews.
It aims to use large samples sizes to project figures onto smaller geographical areas, modelling people's voting preferences based upon their demographics and the local political circumstances.
YouGov said the same method in 2017 accurately predicted a hung Parliament when many other election predictions pointed towards a Conservative majority.
It says: “Based on analysis of key demographics, past voting behaviour, and the likely turnout among different demographic groups, we use this data to estimate voting in each constituency. As this is a national model, it does not always account for specific local factors that may shape the vote in some seats.”
The poll, conducted for the Times, makes good reading for Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he attempts to secure a Tory majority.
It puts the Conservatives on 359 seats, up 42 on 2017, giving the party a 43 per cent share of the vote..
Labour is projected to secure just 211 seats, down 51 seats, with 32 per cent of votes.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to win 13 seats, up just one, with 14 per cent of the vote.
The Scottish National Party is projected to win 43 seats, with Plaid Cmyru securing four and the Greens one.
Meanwhile, another poll for the Telegraph suggests Boris Johnson is leading by 12 points, two weeks out from the election, but that Labour is slowly closing the gap.
More by this authorPaul Brackley