Cambridge United’s 17-game winless run: Why have the U’s gone more than six months without a victory?
One hundred and eighty-four days – that was the last time that Cambridge United experienced the feeling of winning a football match.
Tuesday night’s last-gasp 1-0 defeat to Rotherham United means that it is now 17 games across two seasons without a victory for Garry Monk’s men, who sit bottom of the League One table with just a single point to their name.
So why is a win proving to be painfully elusive? Below the Cambridge Independent has taken a look at some of the issues currently plaguing the U’s.
A packed physio room
There is not a club in the land that does not suffer from injuries, but during the early weeks of the season United have been particularly ravaged. The problems actually started before a ball had been kicked in anger with the confirmation that Mamadou Jobe had joined George Thomas in damaging his anterior cruciate ligament, sidelining the highly thought of defender for most of the campaign.
As well as Jobe and Thomas, physio Ryan Meredith and his medical team currently have Kell Watts, Taylor Richards, Shayne Lavery, Gary Gardner, Josh Stokes and Dan Barton under their care. Elias Kachunga, Ryan Loft and Jordan Cousins have also spent not insignificant amounts of time injured this term.
How many of those presently out of action that would make Monk’s preferred starting line-up is up for debate, but it is not outlandish to suggest that at least five would feature. That is almost half a team – no club at any level could lose that many key players at the same time and not be severely impacted. And only being able to name six substitutes against Rotherham tells its own story in terms of the options available.
And what is more worrying is that none of those on the treatment table appear to be close to returning to the pitch – certainly not before this weekend’s trip to Exeter City.
Summer deals
In many ways, this goes hand in hand with injuries. Of the 12 new signings that arrived during the summer transfer window, only half were available for last night’s defeat to Rotherham – and one of those, James Gibbons, spent the second half of last season on loan with the club before joining permanently in June.
Gardner’s Achilles tendonitis has meant that he has still not played for the club, Loft has only recently started to feature in matchday squads with two appearances off the bench, while Watts and Richards have been limited to 85 and 35 minutes of action respectively.
It is no secret that often when United enter the transfer market there is an element of risk attached to their business. After all, with their budget dwarfed by many of the sides in the division, the club has to gamble on players for a variety of reasons – and sometimes they come with questionable injury records.
The quality and experience of some of those players that have come in is undeniable, but right now the wagers are not paying off.
What the numbers say
Ultimately the only statistics that matter in football are a team’s won, loss and draw returns. And right now, Cambridge’s makes for pretty grim reading.
But scratch the surface just a little bit and some of the underlying figures have been encouraging. A team’s xG is like Marmite for supporters, but in this day and age it is a metric that coaches and pundits lean heavily on to judge performances.
The term xG is an abbreviation which stands for ‘expected goals’. It is a statistical measurement of the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of them being scored. And when Opta Analyst crunches the numbers for Cambridge after eight matches, the standard of opportunities both created and conceded has the U’s sitting in 17th position with nine points – eight more than they currently possess.
The team is also 12th when it comes to average possession (49.5 per cent) and 13th when it comes to accurate passing.
When all is said and done results will always be king – if only football was played on paper!
What needs to change?
Score more goals and concede less – simple, hey?! In all seriousness though, as the above numbers suggest, United have so far come up short in the two key areas of the pitch. According to statisticians FotMob, United have squandered 11 ‘big chances’ in their eight games. They have scored just six goals and four of those came during a crazy afternoon against Blackpool.
Last night was a case in point of the profligacy in front of goal when some in the Newmarket Road End were already celebrating what looked to be a tap in for Dan Nlundulu, only for Cameron Dawson to make an inexplicable save. While the goalkeeper’s bravery and athleticism were impressive, the question is should he have been given the opportunity to make the stop?
And a large majority of the goals that they have conceded will have been the cause of sleepless nights for Monk – a former Premier League defender. Many have come from poor decision making, not tracking a runner or failing to make a first or second contact. Aside from Lee Gregory’s curling effort for Mansfield Town, there have been few goals were you shrug your shoulders and concede that nothing could have been done to prevent it. These are not issues with system or shape, it comes down to individuals.
Some old fashioned good luck would also be very welcome – both in terms of players returning from injury and staying fit, but a leg up from the opposition would not go amiss. Last season’s trip to Barnsley is the perfect example when a United side that had shipped 10 goals in their two previous outings went 1-0 up thanks to a calamitous own goal scored by Mael de Gevigney. It breathed some much needed confidence and momentum throughout a previously flat side, the U’s won 2-0 and they followed that up with a 3-1 victory over Wigan Athletic on Easter Monday – the last time that Monk’s men picked up three points. Sometimes when the chips are down you need a helping hand.
United are yet to take the lead in any league match this season and there is a sense whenever they fall behind of ‘here we go again’. It may be a well-worn cliché, but goals change games and scoring the first in a game alters the whole complexion. Had Nlundulu tucked away his chance last night, who is to say United would not have gone on to win the game?
And what about the head coach?
Monk has been in the game long enough to know that if wins do not arrive in the not too distant future then he could well pay the ultimate price.
But is it the right time to make a change in the dugout? After all, he has been severely hamstrung by injuries to important players and the underlying numbers are not all bad. Yet, there will be those that quite rightly point to the fact that of his 22 games in charge, just two have ended in victories.
The impression right now is that – with those mitigating factors in mind – he will be given more time to turn the situation around. The club showed when Mark Bonner went through two long spells without a win that they are willing to back their man – and they look set to do it again.